Shall the Pearl of Africa Rise and Shine Again?

I wrote this paper in 1999 as an assignment during my master’s studies at the Centre for Infrastructure Planning in Stuttgart, Germany. With a completely naive approach I grappled with the question: what path should Uganda follow to develop? And today, more than ever, I am convinced that those naĆÆve musings of 1999 point the way to that path. Please read on and make your own opinion. If it’s too long, just go straight to the conclusion.  I will be more than glad to receive your comments.

1.0 Background Information

1.1 Introduction

In 1910, Winston Churchill baptized Uganda the Pearl of Africa because of the beauty of the landscape.  The natural beauty remains but the country has had upheavals that have seen development plummet to the doldrums.  Fortunately in the recent past there has a change for the better.  But the question still remains; are the positive changes enough to make the Pearl of Africa rise and shine again?

This paper attempts to answer the above question by making an analysis of the development situation in Uganda.  Chapter 1 gives the general information about the country.  It also puts the development situation in perspective by citing the significant facts about Uganda’s history and their impact on the economy.  This is followed by chapter on current development that describes the economic and political situation since 1986 when the reigning National Resistance Movement (NRM) came to power.  Having considered the past and the present, chapter 3 puts forth –viable recommendations and priorities for the future.  And finally come the conclusions.

Map of Uganda.

1.2 General Facts

Uganda is located in East Africa and has a total surface areas of 241, 500 sq.km.  The country is completely landlocked.  The population is 21 million giving an average density of 85 persons/sq.km.  The annual population growth rate is however an alarming 3% per annum.  Per capita income is a mere 320 US $ per year but the GDP rates is one of the highest in the world.  1998 GDP growth rate was 5.6% (2).  The economy of Uganda is mainly agrarian.  The agricultural sector employs 78% of the population in the form of subsistence farming (1).  The country is also endowed with a variety of natural resources.  For agricultural there are good soils and climate in many parts of the country, and Uganda can easily become the grain basket of Africa.

There are also a variety of rivers and lakes.  These include Lake Victoria and River Nile.  The minerals resources include cobalt, gold and copper.  The country is also immensely beautiful and has a lot of potential for tourism.

1.3 History

The political history of Uganda and her development are inextricably intertwined.  In colonial times the British founded the state of Uganda, as we know it today and instituted administrative structures for the nation.  A number of different ethnic and tribal groupings were brought together to form a nation.  This heterogeneous character of the country is abused by politicians for selfish aims and has therefore contributed to internal tensions.  The British also opened the country up to the world economy by introducing cash crops for export.  In addition, the British built infrastructure facilities such the railway (which provided a vital link to the Indian Ocean), a road network, the Owen falls hydropower station in 1958, several schools, factories and hospitals.

At independence time in 1962, the economy of the country was strong and vibrant with fairly good infrastructure systems.  For instance, capita income in 1962 was160 US$; higher than Thailand’s US$ 150 (1).

Although the colonial inheritance was beneficial to the country in several ways, its main shortcoming was that it did not leave in place adequate systems and skilled personnel to run the country.  Thus the post –independence leaders were not skilled enough to handle the complexities of the fragile nation and ensure beneficial participation on the international scene.  The events of history unfolded to reveal that the country was ill prepared for independence.

Milton Obote was the first post-independence premier with Edward Muteesa as ceremonial president.  In 1966 Obote overthrew Muteesa with the help of his half-literate Army Commander known as Idd Amin.  He thus introduced the military into politics.  And in January 1971 Amin overthrew Obote in a coup de tat.

Amin unleashed a dictatorial reign of brutality and terror.  Economic development was drastically reversed during Amin’s (mis)rule.  Infrastructure and institutions collapsed.  In 1972 he chased all Ugandans of Asian origin out of the country and expropriated their property.  Factories were given to Amin’s illiterate cronies who grossly mismanaged them.  By 1975 the annual GDP growth rate had fallen to –5.1% down from the 1967 rate of +5.1% (2).

Amin’s international relations were also equally disastrous.  In 1977 he played an instrumental role in the collapse of the East African Community (EAC).  And in 1978 he provoked Tanzania into a war which led to his overthrow the following year.  The country was liberated from a dictator.  But the cost to the economy of this war, in terms of loss of human life and destruction of infrastructure, was enormous.

Obote come to power once again through the disputed 1980 elections.  His efforts to reconstruct the war –ravaged county were greatly undetermined by a guerrilla war launched by Yoweri Museveni in protest against the elections results.  In 1985 Obote was once again overthrown by the military.  The following year Museveni’s rag-tag army triumphantly marched into Kampala.  Museveni became president and is still in power today.

2.0 The Situation Today

2.1 New Government

Museveni’s pragmatic and candid demeanour immediately impressed many at home and abroad but the task ahead was daunting.  He inherited an economy destroyed by years of mismanagement and war.  GDP in 1986 was a mere US $ 900 million.  This was 42% lower than the 1970 figure (1).  Even the very basic needs like soap and salt were hard to come by.

In 1987, in collaboration with the World Bank and the IMF, he embarked on a programme of reform by introduction of new measures aimed at achieving a stronger market economy.  Uganda embarked on a programme of rejuvenation that has seen the country making remarkable economic recovery.  The result was that in the decade 1988- 1998 the country achieved an impressive average GDP growth rate of 6.4% (2).  Today Uganda is acclaimed by the World Bank as a shining example of an economic recovery success story.

2.2 Positive Economic Changes

The economic reforms include: restoration of capacity, rebuilding of infrastructure and stabilizing the macro-economic policy.

All economic sectors were in ruins.  Factories had ground to a halt and agriculture production was low.  An active policy to get factories functioning again was implemented and new ones were built.  The result was successful import substitution that eliminated dependence on neighbouring Kenya for basics such as bread, soap and beer.  The agriculture sector was also restored.  Production of the traditional cash crops of coffee, cotton and tea was restored.  In addition there was a strategy used to boost agriculture through the introduction of non-traditional agricultural exports (NTAEs), such as horticultural products, beans and simsim, to reduce over-dependency on coffee.  In the mining sector, production of copper which used to contribute to 30% of the country’s export earning had halted.  Measures to compensate for this loss by exploitation of cobalt are in place.  When production finally starts, Uganda will contribute 5% to the world’s cobalt output (1).

Rebuilding of infrastructure destroyed by the two wars also took place.  Many roads were repaired and the Owen Falls dam power output was restored to capacity.  A new power station is under construction at the Owen Falls, and others are planned at Bujagali and Karuma falls.  The generated power will be for stimulation of growth of the manufacturing sector and for export.

At macro-economic policy level the economy was opened–up through trade liberalization.  There were also fiscal and monetary policy measures which, among others, included tighter government spending, and control of inflation.  In 1987 the inflation rate was at 200%.  By 1998 it had been reduced to 6% (2).  Determination of the foreign exchange rate was also left to market forces.

Institutionally there was a land reform in 1998 and streamlining of the civil service through retrenchment.  In addition the new Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) improved tax collection in the country while private investment was facilitated through the creation of the Uganda Investment Authority (UIA).  Privatisation of state parastatals with the aim of making them more efficient providers of services was also undertaken.

All these were crowned with gender sensitivity through affirmative action for females.  Each district has a special woman representative in parliament.

Politically, a no-party state was introduced.  The National Resistance Movement (NRM), which started, as a guerrilla organization constituted itself into an organ that is running the country up to day.  For reasons of national reconciliation and unity, activities of all political parties were suspended.  In principle the Movement is an umbrella organisation to which all Ugandans belong.  The System worked very well in the beginning as a kind of transitory phase.  Because of its principle of maintaining a broad-base it comfortably accommodated various interest groups into a semblance of unity.  Under this system, elections at various levels were also held right from the RC 1 to parliament level.

In 1995, a new constitution was enacted after extensive consultation.  Under the new constitution the Movement system of government is to continue until 2000 when a referendum will take place to determine whether to continue with the Movement system or change to multiparty politics.  The new constitution provides for 5 yearly direct presidential elections under the Movement.  In 1996 the first such elections were held and the incumbent emerged victorious.

2.3 Today’s Problems

2.3.1 Failure at Micro-level

Most indicators show that macro-economic performance is largely on track.  However at household level performance is still dismal.  The average man is still as badly off, maybe even worse off, than in previous regimes.  55% of the people live below the poverty line while 31% of the income is concentrated in 10% of the population [3].

There exists dualistic situation in which income is concentrated in Kampala City leaving the countryside in poverty.  Even within the city, income distribution is highly skewed with 58% of the inhabitants having single-room dwellings, and over 50% not having access to the municipal sanitation system [4].  Hence a small minority click within the city is wallowing in affluence while the rest of the country languishes in abject poverty.

There are also disparities in the countryside.  Some areas are better endowed in resources in terms of soils and climate for agriculture production.  Others are in close proximity to the city or connected to it by good road network.  And yet in others perpetual civil war has brought all development activity to a standstill while destroying whatever had been achieved in the past.

This undesirable situation is exacerbated by the rapid population growth rate.  The 1980 census year population was at 12.5 million [1].  Today it is already 21 million [2].  At the current growth rate of 3% per annum the population growth rate is out-stripping the ability of the economy to adequately cater for the people.  Out of the maximum of 1 on the Human Development Index (HDI), Uganda had a value of 0.326 in 1996.  This ranked Uganda 155^th out of the 174 countries for which HDI was calculated [1].

Another manifestation of poverty is ignorance and prevalence of disease.  The literacy rate today is only at 55%.  While in 1996 the health expenditure was only 5.65 US$ per capita per year which falls short of the World Health recommendation of at least 12 US $.  Infant mortality in the same year was 122 children per 1000 live births [1].  One aspect of health worth of special mention here is the AIDS problem.  Due to ignorance and a poorly organized health system, the disease afflicted many people in the sexually active age group (note that this age-group also constitutes the labour force).

A serious consequence of poverty is that as people get more desperate, they exploit the environment with impunity (87% of the population survives by directly exploiting the land in the form of subsistence farming) [1].  The result is environmental degradation.  The destroyed environment in turn leads to low yields.  Environmental degradation is evidenced by land fragmentation (especially in the highly populated areas around volcanic mountains). Since 1986 the country experienced two severe famines in two different regions.  The latest one occurred this year in the western part or the country.  These incidences of famine can be largely attributed to environmentally unsustainable farming methods.

The economic growth rate over the past years has been high and yet the majority of the people have remained poor.  This is because the link between economic development and people’s welfare is weak.  The strengthening of this link cannot be expected to happen automatically.

2.2.3 Huge international Debt burden

All development has been achieved through colossal borrowing from especially the World Bank and the IMF.  In 1986 the debt was US $1300 million [1].  Today it stands at alarming figure of US $ 3600 million. The ratio of the debt to GDP is 0.5:1 [2]. Therefore the external debt constitutes 33% of the GDP.  This comes with the associated burden of debt servicing.  Borrowing per se is not bad as it injects extra capital into the economy; which can break the vicious cycle of poverty.  The problem here is that debt-funded projects are rarely utilized to create capacity in the domestic economy with the aim of becoming independent from on come generation at home.  For example, a typical government loan will usually put aside a hefty portion of the budget for purchase of four-wheel vehicles.  These are manufactured abroad and therefore do not contribute to income and employment at home. This undesirable situation is worsened by public officials who divert borrowed monies for personal benefit.

2.2.3 Poor Balance of Trade

Uganda relies on low value exports with little value added while importing expensive manufactured goods with full added.  The result is that revenue from exports falls short of income from imports.

This implies that Ugandans give more money to citizens of other countries than they receive.  Hence in terms of employment creation, Uganda is contributing more to foreign countries than to the home economy.  The ultimate result is the outflow of income from Uganda to abroad.  This contributes to maintenance of the poverty situation in the country.

2.3.4 Corruption

The cancer of corruption manifests itself in form of bribery, stealing of public funds and favouritism.  Due to breakdown of the legal system and moral decadence resulting from years of political anarchy, corruption is so wide spread that is has now become an accepted way of living.  For example, a government official in charge of constructing a new public building would be considered a fool (by Ugandan standards) if he did not divert enough materials from the project to construct himself a posh bungalow. In Uganda the attractiveness of job is seen in terms of avenues it offers for corruption.  When one finds an ‘attractive job’, the special phrase used is that he has ‘eaten’ or ‘fallen into riches’.

A sizeable section of the middle class and political elite acquire their wealth through corruption.  In Uganda the majority of the rich are not necessary working harder.   They are stealing harder.  The source of the stolen funds is foreign aid and the efficient tax system.  The consumption patterns of the corrupt elite are ostentatious.  They live the life that they see in the movies: watch cable TV, drive huge four wheel vehicles, wear designer clothing – in short commodities that are not manufactured in the country.  This adds yet another unfortunate dimension to the problem in that the bulk of the stolen funds get out of the economy to create employment and income in developed countries.  In effect, this looting of public money ensures that all the aid coming to country is going down a black hole.  The resulting imbalance in wealth also breeds political discontent amongst the people out of the system of government who feel denied of the national cake.

There is lack of political will to fight this ill.  For instance, the president’s brother has on three separate occasions confessed to corruption involving colossal sums of money.  He has never been prosecuted.  And, even more unfortunate, he still finds the audacity to lead a high profile public life.

Corruption has undermined otherwise well-intentioned policies.  The privatization process has become an avenue for the well-connected elite to unfairly grab companies at give–away prices.  The Uganda Revenue Authority is in effect an organ to squeeze money out of honest Ugandans and line the pockets of the corrupt click.  The enormous foreign debt only benefits this click and yet the burden to pay falls on all Ugandans.

The other aspect of corruption is favouritism in the form of nepotism and preferential treatment for certain regions of the country. The best paying jobs are dominated by people from a certain region.  In 1988 when there was a famine in the eastern part of the country, the people were sarcastically advised to eat mangoes to stave starvation.  This year when there was a famine in the west (the ruling elite’s home region), a sum of 3 billion shillings was immediately dispatched [5].  Hence the distribution of resources is not based on rational development policy but on petty sectarian considerations.  This unfairness is cause of plenty of resentment for the current regime.

Although the high profile cases generate more public attention, corruption is widely spread.  It’s highly likely that even a clerk in a small remote office will expect a bribe before he renders a service.

2.3.5 Political Problems

Because of the atrocities of previous regimes and the popular nature of the NRM war, there was plenty of good will from the masses for the Movement.  However the initial altruism of the Movement is gradually disappearing to reveal the ugly head of arrogant abuse of power for self-aggrandizement.  The population is becoming increasing wearer of the system.  For this reason, in its quest for longevity in power, the Movement is increasingly using unfair means to maintain an artificial majority.  The majority is artificial because there is no level political playing field.  The movement uses state machinery, state patronage, and intimidation of opponents to maintain a majority.  On the other side is an ‘opposition’ which is banned.  Therefore the Movement can win any election hands down.

Though in principle all Ugandans belong to the Movement, the reality is that only certain individuals are ‘true Movementist’.  There exists an unofficial opposition consisting of advocates for multi-party.  And within the Movement there is a spilt between the hardliners and the reformers.  The reformers are urging for opening up of the system to multi-party.  The reformers are also the ones at the forefront of the battle against corruption while the hardliners (including the president) tend to sympathize with the corrupt.  It can therefore no longer be argued that the hardliners can lead to the development of Uganda through a benevolent dictatorship.

The question of whether to start multi-party policies or maintain the Movement system will be decided in a referendum in 2000 [9].  Given the existing political set-up, it is a foregone conclusion that the movement will win the referendum by mobilizing an artificial majority.  And with a new legitimacy arising from this victory the Movement will suppress opposition with impunity.  This, it is feared will exacerbate internal tensions and lead to even more civil strife.

On going wars within and without the country’s boundaries are a continuous sad reminder that the road to full national reconciliation is still long and difficult.  Remnants of former regimes are waging guerrilla wars in the north and in the west of the country.  The rebels use the cowardly tactics of attacking soft targets.  They kill, maim, abduct and rape civilians.  The people must abandon their farms to live in protected villages.  The guerrilla wars have an international dimension because the rebels are supported by Sudan as retaliation against support offered by Uganda to the Sudan Peoples Liberation army (SPLA).

Since coming to power in 1986 the government has been involved in skirmishes with Kenya, a war to overthrow the Hutu regime in Rwanda, the overthrow of Mobutu in former Zaire. 

Currently Uganda is at war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).  This conflict, known as the Great Lakes Region Conflict, is now a costly international stalemate.  On one side is Uganda and Rwanda.  On the other side is DRC support by Zimbabwe, Angola, Namibia and the Central African Republic.  The result is that Museveni has lost the political stature he once wielded in the Great Lakes Region.

3 Suggestions for the Future

3.1 The People as a Resource and Beneficiaries in the Development Process

The people in a nation are a nation’s major resource.  At the same time, all development efforts are geared towards improving people’s welfare.

There are three factors of production; land, labour and capital.  The people constitute the labour force.  Labour is considered the most instrumental factor because it is people who organize and utilize the land and the capital for production.  Development of a nation hinges on the human resource.  And as the nation develops the people’s welfare also improves.  Therefore, short of manna falling from heaven, the people are responsible for uplifting their own well-being.

From the perspective of labour, there are some necessary preconditions for development.  One is that all individuals of productive-age must be healthy and have useful skills.  The other is that there must be institutions capable of reaching all individuals and co-ordinating their diverse activities to achieve certain desirable conditions.  Assume for example that a strategic shift from agriculture to an industrial based economy is planned.  It will be necessary that the individuals are given new skills and that institutions reach all people to influence their decisions toward industrialization.

Another essential for development is a peaceful political atmosphere.  The political environment is a sum of interactions between individuals and groups of individuals.  Genuine and lasting peace can only be achieved when the majority of the people are willing to work together as a nation.  To get people to work together starts with education and continues with institutions capable of reaching each individual member of society.

The above discussion points to the need for development of the human resource (for skills, health and political cohesion) as well as institutions for co-ordination and consistency.

People can also influence development negatively.  Wars, for example, are an outcome of people’s actions.  Corruption can also only be perpetuated by people.  The simple example of a plan to build a new bridge explains the danger of corruption and war.  On one hand the bridge project may never be finished because a certain corrupt official siphoned the monies to his account.  On the other hand, the nearly constructed bridge might be destroyed in a war. This points to the need for education to instil morals and a spirit of national unity.  It also calls for institutions strong enough to keep errant individuals in control.

It is for these reasons that this paper gives emphasis not to development of physical infrastructure, but to education and review of the institutional, legal and policy frameworks.

3.2 Review of institutional and Legal Framework

The entities that make up a cohesive nation are either non-existent or non-effective.  The consequence is that development policies have failed and will continue to fail due to lack of a well-structured environment for development.  The recommendations made under the heading ‘Review of Institutional, Legal and Policy framework’ aim at revamping the system to turn the situation from anarchy to order.

3.2.1 A hierarchy of subsystems

There are two diametrically opposed approaches to development.  These are the centralized approach and the free-market economy.

Uganda is underdeveloped.  The country needs to develop.  The ideal situation therefore is that all resources and efforts of each and every individual are strongly co-ordinated for rapid development.  Given this need the approach that immediately comes to mind is the centralized systems where government will have definite control on development.

However, rigidly centralized systems, though resulting in consistency at National level, have the disadvantage of inflexibility and can generally be out of touch with unique local development needs.  The Ugandan experience also shows concentrating power at the top opens the systems to abuse and misuse with the ruling elite allocating themselves the bulk of the resources.

The extreme alternative to the centralised system is the free market economy where decisions for allocation of resources are left to individual households and firms with minimum government interference.  This system is very flexible and leads to efficiency.  However the government has limited control over the multitude of individual decisions and hence it is more difficult to maintain national consistency.  In the Ugandan context, due to low functional-education levels and lack of prerequisite conditions (infrastructure, information, political stability), individuals left to themselves can simply not develop the economy.  In any case the dire development needs of the country require a degree of consistency which cannot be offered by this approach.

Of the two extreme approaches therefore, neither is recommended.  Instead a comprise approach, which strikes a balance between the benefits and disadvantages of each, is preferred.  However, given the general paralysis in the system, strong guidance from the top is emphasized in order to give the initial crucial push to project the country into prosperity.  But the ultimate aim should be a gradual empowerment of the individuals with the aim of having more and more decisions made by the households and private firms.

Currently Uganda is divided into districts as stipulated by the constitution.

                “The system of local government in Uganda shall be based on the district as a

            unit…”[7].

Under the district there are the counties, then sub-counties, the parish and finally the village unit.  The basic principle here-in is consistent with the suggestions of this paper but the systems are rather weak.  Hence there is still a need for political will to strengthen and co-ordinate them for effectiveness in making and implementations of plans.

However, the present decentralised system has tow major shortcomings.  One is that since direct government involvement stops at the district, the ability of government to control and direct development is greatly diminished.  The state of development in Uganda requires stronger government control than can be offered by this system.

The second problem, which is even more significant, is failure of the system to address an existing structural deficiency.  The structural deficiency is that the government does not get down to the grass roots to provide services and to actively influence people’s decisions.  A government which fails to reach the people cannot unite all of them in purpose to lift the country out of abject poverty.

Given these two shortcomings, it is suggested that the central government increases its influence on development trends by playing a more active role in at district level and running a parallel deconcentrated system. [1]  The deconcentrated system needs to be integrated with the existing decentralized organs to avoid confusion and conflict.  Though power to make plans and implement the should not be taken way from the district council, the operational framework must make it possible for the central government to have a certain degree of control on the allocation of resources at district level with the aim of maintaining overall national consistency.  Thus certain aspects of the central government policy become obligatory for each district with finance coming either from the district or the central government.  Simultaneously, it should be possible for a deconcentrated version of central government to appear at all levels to execute specific projects.

Deconcentrated government power needs to transcend the district and go further down to people at the grassroots. The recommendation is to use a hierarchical series of sub-systems to reach every members of society. The hierarchies can closely follow the district –country-sub county-parish-village framework.  For example to get a particular policy implemented, the central government would delegate the responsibility to the district-level sub-system.  Which in turn would delegate to the lower county-level-sub-system.  And the process would continue through the sub-county-level and parish-level sub-system to the village unit.  There exists here an obvious danger of government control becoming over-bearing (with the resultant political resentment), and stifling of flexibility and individual drive.  To avoid this, it is recommended that strict government control stops at level of institutions at the village level.  Hence at village level there should government employed administrative staff, who are centrally obliged to fulfil specific assignments.  The assignments aim at influencing individual decisions, not through coercion, but by means of incentives.  Such incentives may include availing of information, education (and training), access to credit, and provision of basic infrastructure.  For maximum impact government efforts to influence individual decision need to be complementary.  For example the government can, through the village administration, promise to provide a well to community but only on condition that each household plants half hectare of a new high value cash-crop (which may need to be irrigated from the well).  And at the same time government runs a programme to train the local in the special skills needed to care for the new crop.  This lowest administrative level could be responsible for 20-30 households.  This way the government gets to exactly implement development plans without getting overwhelmed, and the people don’t feel unduly influenced by the state.

The system which works from top to down can at the same time work from down to the top offering the masses an avenue to air their views to government.  Hence the people get a measure of say in the running of their government.

This deconcentrated system which gets down to the household level offers the opportunity of formation of partnerships between government and already existing systems.  For example there are a number of Non-Governmental Organisations which have successfully carried out micro-financing credit schemes in the countryside.  Many people have, faced with common problems of poverty, come together to help each other.  It is not uncommon to find a group of ten who contribute 5 U$ per month to a central pool.  The lump sum collected rotates among the members on monthly basis.  By working with such positive forces the government can form an intricate national web to bring all resources to bear to achieve development targets.

3.2.2 Legal Aspects

No system can function efficaciously in the absence of a clear legal environment with precise enforceable laws.  For the suggested deconcentrated system it is imperative that a clear legal basis be formulated to clarify issues and avoid abuse of the system.  It is also equally important that the implementing agencies be strengthened.  In 1998 it was revealed that some police personnel stay in mortuaries due to lack of appropriate accommodation.  It would be expecting too much to imagine that a person living in such dire circumstances will refuse 100 US$ bribe to let a murderer go free.  The police and the judiciary need to be facilitated and motivated to enforce law and order.

Legal reforms should further aim at transparency and accountability.  This is very important for the proper functioning of politics and the economy.  It helps provide a force to battle against abuse of power and corruption.  It also provides a proper and affair economic playing field with a spirit of true free enterprise.

3.3 Development of the Human Resource

3.3.1 Education

Following closely in line with the principle of a system of hierarchies is developing of the human resource.  At the lowest level of the system are the individuals who make up the masses.  These are the building blocks of the nation, so to speak.  The nation’s ability to develop and progress hinges the ability of each individual to contribute meaningfully.  Successful examples in history all highlight the importance of the human resource.  The case of Germany after the 2^nd World War is clear testimony to the importance of a population with high productivity.  The physical infrastructure had been razed to the ground.  The country’s systems then re-oriented the skilled population to build the current economic power from the ashes of destruction.

In the Ugandan countryside, people don’t know of any other way of survival different from the way their forefathers lived (i.e. subsistence agriculture).  To develop in a modern context, Ugandans will have to be taught new skills that make them competitive in a new kind of village- the global village.

The population needs new skills in farming, small–scale manufacturing and commerce.  In short, skills to help people earn money through gainful employment.  By gainful employment here is meant the kind that is consistent with the country’s overall development objectives.  It is of course appreciated that the benefits of education can only begin to show after about 30 years.  In this sense this is a long-term strategy which, however, requires to be put atop the list of priorities immediately.  Someone once said that if you wanted a beautiful lawn today, you should have started planting 10 years ago.  If we want a skilled work force for the future, we need to start on education today.

A different, but equally important, aspect of education is the possibility to use it in a process to heal the nation and consolidate political cohesion.  People need to learn how to participate and maximize benefits in a democratic political environment without getting confused by demagogues.  Education can also help people to start looking beyond individual and tribal aims to a larger national picture.  Educated people can participate more effectively in the hierarchical series of sub–systems because they have the skills and are easier to co-ordinate.  

The Universal Primary Education, scheme introduced in 1996, is a right step in this direction.  However it has problems of poor conception and implementation.  It is also based on existing syllabi which emphasise passing exams at the expense of acquiring skills.

Leadership that can inspire and guide the people is also an output of education.  Today’s leaders are selfish and egoistic.  It is difficult (sometimes impossible) to change the character of an adult.  The change needs to start with the young leaders coming from a new education system.  Such leaders need to be altruistic, capable of building, of conceiving daring plans, of inspiring.

Quite a part from giving everyone a certain minimum empowerment through education is the ever present need for a highly educate intelligentsia to spearhead development, innovation and change.  The general masses are usually slow to respond to change.  Needed are people who can grasp the national and global changes and respond appropriately.

Makerere University used to be one of the best centres of learning in Africa.  But the poorly conceived and implemented policy of cost sharing (which involved intake of private students) is threatening to change the situation for the worse.  There has been an increase in student intake in the last ten years of 100% - while staffing and facilities have remained at the same levels.  The graduates will definitely be substandard and will not be up to task of leading Uganda into the new millennium as a modern state.  The other problem here is that the University is not practical oriented; the most vivid example is that of engineers.  Engineering graduates of Makerere can understand the way that machines work and repair imported ones but they cannot manufacture simple machines.  The degree is merely about the piece of paper not the acquired skills.  As one journalist put it, “the respect accorded to pieces of paper … is a reflection that mediocrity rules in many places in Uganda today, and most people wouldn’t recognize excellence even if they fell over it in the street^.”[6]  Something needs to done to arrest the current negative trends and to reshape the university into a provider of excellence for development.

It is necessary to review the education system at all levels; from primary, through secondary, right up to tertiary level.  The process to review education system should cover a review of the curricula, (re)training of teachers and investment in learning aids.  For success, teaching methods need to change from learning by rote to imparting of usable skills.

3.3.2 Step-by step-Improvement of Skills

Ugandans lack skills in making machines and infrastructure, trading, and farming.  And yet so many countries have perfected skills in all these fields.  Ugandans have not started making machines but are merely maintaining imported ones.  For example, Ugandan engineers can completely understand a car but yet to make a single one.

German started late in the industrial revolution.  But they can now make all machines.  The lesson from this is that the Germany people and systems are capable of recognizing positive change, embracing it and utilizing it beneficially.

Uganda is in an age where lots of beneficial technologies have already been invented.  Ugandans don’t have to re-invent the wheel.  They merely have to choose which technologies to use for development.  People have gone to the moon and come back but Ugandans cannot yet make simple machines.  This must change.

As part of a global system Uganda faces competition from developed countries with established technologies, bigger capital outlays and economies of large-scale production. It is for this reason that a step-by step approach is recommended.  Ugandans don’t have to start by going to the moon.  The country should start by adapting simple technologies, mastering them, and marketing them.  The first aim is to become highly competitive in a little market niche.  After mastering one level, the next and more complex level should be tackled in a similar manner.  After which the country goes on to the next level, and the next.  The point here is: start with simple tasks but make consistent progress.  With such a policy, the sky is not limit.  Ugandans can eventually go up to mars.

3.3.3 Health

Poor health is both a symptom and cause of poverty.  As a symptom it leads to disease and suffering of the masses.  As a cause, the productivity of unhealthy people is limited.  To eliminate poverty therefore requires improvement of the people’s health for increased productivity.  Funds need to be availed to improve health indicators such infant mortality, life expectancy and incidence of avoidable diseases.  The other aspect of improving the health situation involves education of the masses in such matters as disease prevention, childcare and dieting.

The population growth rate also needs to be checked and brought down to level of less than 2% per year.  Measures to control population growth will include family planning through dissemination of contraceptive tools, and improved education (especially of the girl child).

3.4 Political Solutions

3.4.1 Re-introduction of multi-party politics

All recommendations in this paper can only be implemented when there is political stability. Opponents of pluralism argue that parties in Uganda cannot transcend tribal grounds and are therefore not good for national unity.  However, experience also shows that the Movement organs are dominated by people from a certain region of the country (this region also ‘happens’ to be the president’s home area).  It is clear that parties or Movement, tribal politics can shrive.  It is politicians who stir-up tribal sentiments in the quest for power.

The Movement system has the added disadvantage of not tolerating organized opposition.  This gives government unchecked powers; and also breeds frustration amongst people who cannot get a fair chance to attain power.  Unchecked power is open to unlimited abuse.  And the frustration partly explains the present guerrilla wars.  To maintain the Movement is to breed more frustration.  That frustration will burst into more open aggression.

The Movement started as a broad-based system to cater for various interest groups.  This is no longer true.  The increasingly narrowing broad base of the Movement portends implosion of a fragile nation.

It is against this background that a multi-party democracy is recommended over the Movement.  Multiparty politics should not be introduced in the haphazard manner of the 1980s but rather in an organized way with stringent regulatory instruments aimed eliminating the abuse of the freedoms offered by the system.  A true culture of democracy takes a long time to nurture.  It is precisely for this reason that parties should be re-introduced as soon as practicable.

3.4.2 Eliminating internal war

History of guerrilla wars started in the 1970s with various groups fighting the dictator Amin.  It continued after the 1980 elections when the NRM launched another war.  After Museveni ascended to power in 1986, remnants of the Amin and Obote forces perpetuated the civil conflicts.  In the initial years, the NRM used a combination of negotiation and military might to neutralize several rebel groups.  But as soon as one group went down another came up.

Involvement of foreign powers muddles the turbulent waters even further.  The internal frustrated bred by the exclusive nature of Movement adds fuel to the fire.

One prerequisite for ending war is to make peace with all neighbours and to avoid being the aggressor in any conflict.  On this score the government is not doing much.  The incumbent government is more belligerent than diplomatic.  For peace to prevail this attitude must change.

Even if Uganda did manage to have a non-aggression policy, this may not completely deter neighbouring countries with expansionist tendencies from invading her.  For such an eventuality, the country needs a defensive but highly efficient rapid reaction army with the capacity to decisively vanquish any invading force.

3.5 International Relations

Synergy: “the combined power of a group of things when they are working together which is greater the total power achieved by each working separately’ [11].

The concept of sub-systems of hierarchies to form a national system has already been discussed.  Taken to international level, the national system itself becomes a subsystem within the world.

3.5.1 Co-operation not confrontation

War is expensive and drains the national coffers.  It is also destructive to human life and infrastructure while interrupting continuity of development activities.  The effects of co-operation are two fold: On one hand is avoidance of expensive and destructive war.  On the other are the benefits from synergies of co-operation.

As opposed to war, peace is conducive for implementation of development policies.  A peaceful atmosphere also ensures that the infrastructure, built through hard sweat, will not be destroyed.

The synergies arising from co-operation are several.  By forming trading–blocks, Ugandan products can have access to expand markets leading to high profits and economies of large-scale production.  The resultant competition amongst member states results in overall efficiency and country-to-country specialization.  Forming of such blocks can play a crucial role in improving the balance of trade situation of the country.  The market potential of trading blocks cannot be over-stated. In the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) for instance, there is a total of 300 million people [1].  This compares favourably with USA figure of 200 million [3].

In line with the principle of step-by –step development of skills, trading blocks offers the best way forward as the blocks are a compromise between the extremes of protectionism and fully fledged liberation.

The other important gain is that, together with her economic partners, Uganda can have a stronger say in the world economic trends.

4.0 Conclusions

4.1 The Example of Transport

Physical infrastructure is important in the process of stimulation of economic development.  This is true and this paper does not seek to undermine the role of physical infrastructure in the development process.  It must be recognized, however, that the building of physical infrastructure requires ‘non-physical infrastructure’.  Non-physical infrastructure is defined in this paper as the capacity to organize land, labour and capital.  This capacity is offered by the people and the institutions that govern them at local, national and international level.  It is therefore comprised of the skills of the people, and the legal, policy and institutional framework.

Take the example of transport.  The importance of transport in an economy cannot be over emphasized.  Suppose, therefore, that Uganda decides to take the logical strategy of reducing dependency on roads by making a shift to the cheaper alternative of water transport.  Given the abundantly available water resources, it is not difficult to conceive a system based on the lakes, rivers and new strategically placed canal ways to link up the country in an economical and efficient manner.  The realisation of a shift from road to water transport involves a number of steps.  The first step is recognition of the great potential in the water system, the second is conception and formulation of plans, and finally comes the implementation.  All these steps can only be undertaken by the people and the institutions that co-ordinate them.  The sheer size and complexity of such a project would require a highly skilled labour force and strong institutions need to deal with questions like: Where does the money come from?  How will transparency and accountability be ensured?  What technical solution can surmount the obstacle of waterfalls?  How can the transport network be organized to maximize impact on development?  And since such a project could take several years or even decades to accomplish, political stability must be assured.  Political stability also ensures that the infrastructure will not be destroyed after a few years in a war.  If the funds must be borrowed debt management becomes an issue and the need to avoid getting derailed by corruption is ever present.

This foregoing example illustrates that while physical infrastructure is an important stimulant of development, priorities need to shift to development skills and building of institutions.

4.2 Interdependencies between problems and solutions

This paper has already implicitly indicated that there exist strong interactions between problem and problem, solution and solution, and solution and problem.

The solutions suggested here are not just for one problem.  Thus, for example, the development of the human resource tackles the problem (at least in part) of corruption, political instability, poor balance of trade, population and health.  The same is true for the recommendations of a stronger institutional framework and for efforts towards international co-operation.

At the same time, each problem is tackled by at least two solutions.  For instance the problem of poor balance of trade needs to be handled by development of the human resource, a review of the institutional set-up and international co-operation.  These three solutions also hold for political instability.

Interaction amongst problems also exists.  The expression of all problems is pervasive poverty, political instability, corruption, poor balance of trade situation, failure at micro-level all lead to low income levels in the households.  All the suggested solutions aim at eliminating poverty by empowering individuals to earn income.  Hence this paper ultimately aims at uplifting the welfare of Ugandans.  The basic aim of development is to improve people’s welfare.

Because of these inter-dependencies, the benefits accruing from the recommendations implicitly suggest an integrated approach with multi-faceted benefits.

The main problems of development identified in this paper are failure at micro-economic level, a huge debt burden, poor balance of trade and political problems.  There are also implicit problems of environmental degradation and low health levels.  Of all these, only the political problems has been tackled directly under the recommendations.  Following is a step-by-step presentation of each problem to point out how each will be solved as part of the multi-faceted benefits accruing from each solution.

4.2.1 Failure at micro-level

Failure at micro-level is due to the inability of the system to reach the household.  This is addressed by creation of a series of sub-systems to ensure that the micro-systems are effectively influenced by macro-policy.  Increasing productivity of labour through the development of the human resource is effective in empowering the individuals to strengthen the economy at micro-level.  This paper therefore suggests development of the human resource and a review of the institutional set-up to alleviate this problem.

4.2.2 The Environment

To protect the environment, households that live directly off the land must be taught environmentally benign farming methods.  Institutions also need to be strong enough to disseminate environmentally friendly technology, such as fuel–efficient stoves and to introduce programmes like re-forestation.  The institutions should also be able to enforce environmental protection laws on manufacturing firms and other big companies.

4.2.3 The Problem of poor Balance of Payments

Poor balance of trade is due to low export earnings and high expenditure on imports.  To eliminate this problem the strategy is to either increase revenue from exports or reduce expenditure on imports or both.  Increasing export earnings by higher volumes or new higher value exports requires a population with better and diversified abilities.  To reduce expenditure on imports (which involves import –substitution) means that the labour needs new skills to produce what was originally imported.  Done concurrently, the policies of export promotion and import substitution can increase backward-forward linkages in the economy.  An example of such linkages is that what is produced in the agricultural sector is used as raw materials in manufacturing; while the products of the manufacturing sector are also used to boost agricultural production.  Such a process improves the employment and income situation in the country.  Both export promotion and import-substitution therefore require equipping the people with new skills through education.  They also require strong institutions to ensure consistency of implementation and a conducive political environment.

4.2.4 Huge Debt Burden

The problem of the huge debt can best be tackled by investing the borrowed money in projects which generate capacity at home.  The generated capacity must be sufficient to pay off the debt and stimulate a chain of economic activity that will remain longer after the debt is paid-off.  The ideal situation is therefore to spend borrowed money on commodities produced within the country (not on imports).  However the usual case is that projects cannot entirely be accomplished by home produced resources.  Sophisticated capital equipment, for instance, must be imported.  In this case, care needs to be taken to ensure that the activity that is generated as a result of the debt-funded project contributes maximally to domestic income and employment.  Hence the debt-funded project must maximize the beneficial chain of backward-forward linkages.  Thus for example, it would be futile to build a power station to generate power to stimulate factories which depend on only imported raw materials.  The result of such a project would be to worsen the country’s balance of trade situation with the ultimate result that the country looks for more loans.  The required foresight and the need to handle such intricacies require a skilled labour force and a strong institutional framework.  The strong institutions also ensure that the debt monies are not squandered by the corrupt.

4.2.5 Control of the population growth rate

Generally, the more highly educated the person, the fewer children they have.  The recommendation of increasing the quantity of education therefore contributes to a lower population growth rate.  To implement a population policy also requires that institutions be able to get to the target group to propagate birth-control methods and convince the people of the need to have fewer children.

4.2.6 The Issue of Corruption

The effectiveness of the legal framework is prerequisite in the fight against corruption.  A longer-term view of using education to nurture the virtue of honesty especially among the easily impressionable young is also recommended.

4.3 Who will make the Changes?

All the changes suggested here must have an originator for the new institutions, for the development of the human resource, for patiently working towards international co-operation.  The originator must have the foresight to conceive the necessity of these changes.  They must also have the power and the will to finish the task of implementation of the changes; the power to hold the negative forces at bay so that the positive ones prevail.  And yet they must have the restraint and sense not to fall into the trap of abusing this power to oppress and exploit the masses. And the courage to make institutional changes that will curtail their own power.

At independence time there was hope that all Ugandans would finally get to develop their country without undue interference from the colonial masters.  This initial euphoria was gradually replaced by disillusionment as the development situation persistently deteriorated.  In 1986 there was new hope brought by the National Resistance Movement (NRM) lead by Yoweri Museveni.  Many Ugandans were expectant and willing to work together towards rebuilding of the country.  When Museveni said, “this is a fundamental change, not a mere change of guards” people believed him.  And in the first few years the people were not disappointed as the NRM showed a genuine concern for development and managed to implement several beneficial changes.  But the NRM failed to capitalize on the goodwill amongst the people to consolidate and make a lasting foundation for the future.  The leaders have instead started to abuse power and have given selfish considerations priority over national development.  Yet another chance for fundamental change was lost.

To get a new chance, a new strong and genuinely altruistic leadership, either from within or from without the NRM, is prerequisite.

The new leadership should then institute reforms: in the development of the human resource, review of the institutional set-up and international co-operation.  It is only then that Pearl of Africa can hope to rise and shine again.

[1] A deconcentrated system is one in which central state authority appears at various vertical levels of the sub-national entities which act as agents for the center [8]